This paper examines the medium-term trajectory of China-Gulf renewable energy supply chains amid growing global trade restrictions on China. The research explores how the Arab Gulf states, key collaborators in China's renewable energy sector, navigate these challenges, focusing on the dominance of China in global supply chains for solar and wind components. Using a demand-pull, supply-push framework, qualitative analysis assesses two potential scenarios: ‘Blue Sky’, where China-Gulf supply chains grow stronger through ambitious renewable energy targets and expanded foreign direct investment, and ‘Sand Storm’, where geopolitical tensions and export restrictions could weaken these ties. The findings indicate that while supply chain engagement with China has risks, on balance China-Gulf supply solar and wind technology supply chains are currently robust and projected to remain so in the future. The study concludes with policy recommendations for strengthening China's engagement with the broader Global South, highlighting opportunities for countries as they scale up domestic renewable energy deployment.
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